00:00

Charlie Rose: conference which convenes tomorrow. We're going to talk now about how such a meeting was achieved and what our expectations are on the eve of the Madrid Summit. Joining us are Jonathan and Nubar Hovsepian. I apologize, but I want to say it correctly. Thank you for joining us. Looking at it from your own perspective, tell me what your expectations are for this.

00:32

Nubar Hovsepian: First, my expectations are that one thing has been confirmed as a result of the convening of this conference that none of the protagonists or antagonists in this conflict have admitted to the option against each other, and in a sense that is what is so great about the convening of this conference. Would it produce the immediate results of peaceful coexistence on the 30th of October, literally hours from now? No, but it's a start.

01:07

Charlie Rose: And how much of a tribute is it to Secretary Baker that the parties are there?

01:15

Nubar Hovsepian: Well, let's put it different. Instead of a tribute to Secretary Baker, let's say it's a function of the fact that there is only one superpower in the world and a super power can tend to force people to do things they might not be inclined to do so, and that's precisely what has occurred. We have one superpower and the world knows it, and all the protagonists in the Middle East know it. And therefore when Washington calls the shots, the rest fall in.

01:43

Charlie Rose: Does Israel want to be there or do they just simply have to be there?

01:49

Jonathan: Well, I think the entire nation of Israel wants peace, and I think that the government of Israel wants peace, and I think it's probably true that the government of Israel has been put in the position where it had to say yes to the peace conference not only because of the pressure exerted by the American government, but also by the pressure exerted by the Israeli people; 67% of the citizens of Israel want some kind of arrangement where land is traded for peace, and I think that kind of pressure forced Shamir to go to that table.

02:19

Charlie Rose: And what do you expect Israel may - what do you expect the consequences of the conference might be, especially as it moves to the bilateral negotiations?

02:30

Jonathan: Well, I think it's very important for us not to get very high expectations for the first few days. It will be moving this morning when we see for the first time Arabs, Palestinians, and Israelis sitting across the table from each other. It will be wonderful to see that, but the hard stuff is yet to come and it's going to take - I think it's going to take months. I think it might take years before they hammer it out. I think there may be changes in governments in between. We don't know. I think in the end there has to be some kind of compromise where the Arab states and the Palestinians recognize the state of Israeli, its right to security to live within recognized borders, and the state of Israel recognizes the rights of the Palestinians to self-determination in whatever form it's going to be, and there's some kind of arrangement, some kind of trading of territory for a verifiable peace agreement.

03:26

Charlie Rose: I just saw tonight on CBS Evening News Dan Rather interviewing with Prime Minister Shamir. I mean, if I ever have seen a man strong in his conviction never to trade territory, he seemed to be that man.

03:41

Jonathan: He may be that man. He said in an interview with Lemon that during his tenure he's not going to give back land, but he also recognizes that maybe his successor will give back land. I don't know what Shamir is going to do. I don't think anybody but Shamir knows what he's going to do. I hope that he rises to the occasion that he is willing to trade land for peace. If he's not, the people of Israel will help him get to that place.

04:08

Charlie Rose: What are the risks here for - what are the attendant risks? What's the likelihood that something will happen to cause one of the Arab countries to walk away, to leave the conference?

04:22

Nubar Hovsepian: Nobody is going to walk away. There is no room for that. All of them are there. All of them recognize that they have no options. Everything that has been tried in the past has not yielded the results they wanted. Everybody recognizes that they don't have a military option to fall back upon. However, if for a variety of reasons the conference does not lead some tangible results, then we reach an impasse where war becomes inevitable, and the only way we're going to make major inroads is to recognize that ultimately this is a conflict between two competing soverenties, mainly Israeli and Palestinian, over the historic land of Palestine, and there we have to learn how to share. In fact, what it is in a sense we have to really accept Solomon's advice. In fact, it is to divide that child and to share it.

05:24

Charlie Rose: And what worries you the most?

05:27

Nubar Hovsepian: What worries me the most?

05:31

Charlie Rose: His intransigence?

05:34

Nubar Hovsepian: The continuation of sediments, the continued military occupation that is horrific for the Palestinians who liver under occupation, the closure of their universities, the expulsion of Palestinian leaders from the occupied territories. That worries me. What is important is for the Palestinians to say we are on our land and we are willing to live in peace side by side with the Israelis. Therefore, the first and foremost item on the agenda for the Palestinian who lives under occupation is occupation must end.

06:06

Charlie Rose: Are you surprised that the PLO have stood back and allowed this to take place?

06:13

Jonathan: No, I'm not. I think that in the past the PLO's made a lot of mistakes. I think that just as the Israelis and the Jordanians and the Syrians were kind of compelled to do what the Americans want at this time, the PLO is also compelled. It knew who was calling the shots. I think that the West Bank leadership has been extraordinary in cooperating in making sure that it showed the Palestinians -- if the Israelis were forthcoming the Palestinians would be forthcoming and that there was a chance for there to be a peace agreement, and I think it's that kind of attitude that has been very important for Israelis to see so that they see that there is someone to talk to.

06:52

Nubar Hovsepian: It's important though to just underscore a point here. The Palestinians, since 1988, have presented their own peace plan with two-state solution. It's beyond the books. Everybody knows about it. So, what essentially the PLO and the West Bank leadership, and they are not different. All Palestinians are part of a political community. And as much as Americans are part of the American political community, Palestinians, whether they live under occupation or in a refugee camp in Lebanon, are part of one community. Their leadership under occupation is coming forward to head the delegation does not mean that they have abandoned their right to choose who represents their sovereignty. They have simply accepted this to facilitate the process, yet they are insisting, and when they go to the conference, that leadership will say, Haidar Abdel-Shafi, the head of the Palestinian delegation, would say we are one Palestinian people, not one who lives under occupation and one who lives outside.

08:03

Charlie Rose: Israelis understand that?

08:07

Jonathan: I think Israelis basically see this as a procedural issue and most Israelis want to get down to the brass tax of negotiating an agreement. We had a rally - peace now had a rally. There were 40,000-50,000 people there. These are people camping all over the country and it showed that there was a real strong desire for some kind of an agreement. On the other hand, when the settlers had the rally a couple of nights later, if you walked through the crowd you saw that most of the people who were there were bussed in from the West Bank settlements. Unfortunately, there were these extremists who chose that night to try and get in the way of the peace conference.

08:49

Charlie Rose: Bussed in by whom?

08:51

Jonathan: Bussed in by the settlers and by the right wing coalition, and their cause was strengthened by Palestinian rejectionists. Rejectionists on both sides are trying to get in the way of this, but I think that if you ask the average Israeli, they will say we will go as far as we can go, including trading land for peace, in order for there to be real security for us.

09:10

Charlie Rose: Okay. But at the same time they are - even those peace now supporters and members feel strongly about the guarantee that they need for Israel securities, and what is the commitment they need to justify - to satisfy their sense of security?

09:27

Jonathan: I think a lot of that is going to be worked out in negotiations. I think some of it is psychological. I mean, if I have a criticism right now of the way the Arabs have begun this conference, I think that the fact that the Syrian foreign minister is not willing to shake hands with the Israeli delegates is a problem for Israelis. It sends a bad message. I think the Palestinians have acted much more like menches in this case than the Syrians have. Israelis need to know that the Arabs are sincere in their willingness to negotiate an agreement that will allow Israel to live in that region forever in secure borders.

10:10

Charlie Rose: How do the Palestinians and the Syrians and the Jordanians communicate and satisfy the understandable security needs of Israel? What do they need to say and do?

10:21

Nubar Hovsepian: I think the question has to be - it's a two-way street. Palestinians perhaps are the one party in this conflict that fear for their security the most.

10:32

Charlie Rose: For their security?

10:35

Nubar Hovsepian: For their security the most. They are the most vulnerable. They are the ones who have no official government under occupation. Their only government is a military occupation that is despised by every man, woman, and child under that occupation. So, perhaps one of the things --

10:50

Charlie Rose: And Israelis clearly understand that.

10:52

Nubar Hovsepian: I should hope so.

10:54

Charlie Rose: They do, don't they?

10:56

Nubar Hovsepian: I think so.

10:57

Charlie Rose: I bet you every member of the Israeli --

10:59

Nubar Hovsepian: Even Prime Minister Shamir understands it. He knows occupation. Nobody likes occupation. If we begin to speak then this language of mutual exchange we need security for both. We need justice for both. We need to recognize that each has rights, each has claims that must be mitigated through a process of negotiation. Once that becomes clear, then Palestinians and the other Arab communities will be able to communicate a solution based on exchange land for peace that also recognizes the need to have a region of market where each can benefit from that market so that our .

11:35

Charlie Rose: There was actually an interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal today which you may have seen about the opportunities that exist both in terms of commerce and in terms of cooperation if somehow something could be worked out.

11:50

Nubar Hovsepian: If the European community is organized as a market, why not the Middle Eastern community? It would improve a lot for everyone involved.

11:57

Charlie Rose: And how far off is that?

12:00

Nubar Hovsepian: Let me dream.

12:02

Charlie Rose: When you dream, what do you dream?

12:05

Nubar Hovsepian: What do I dream? Well, let me tell you what my wife dreams. She is from a town that will not be returned. She is from Majdanek. She never saw it. She grew up in Lebanon. Her father still remembers how he was kicked out one year after the war in 1948 and 1949. She dreams to at least have a place where she can visit to say this is Palestine. This is my flag. This is my passport. My identity is not bygone. I'm not one of those populations that have become extinct. I exist and I have a dream to have a future.

12:40

Charlie Rose: But is that summed up by a homeland?

12:43

Nubar Hovsepian: Yes. And there will be nobody in the Palestinian delegation who will tell you I want less than a homeland.

12:50

Charlie Rose: And do you think Palestinians and most Israelis can accept that?

12:55

Jonathan: I think most Israelis -- poll after poll shows that Israelis are willing to accept some sort of sovereignty for the Palestinians. We don't have to decide that right now.

13:04

Charlie Rose: Some kind of autonomy.

13:05

Jonathan: Well, I think autonomy is a transitional thing.

13:07

Charlie Rose: is a different word than sovereignty.

13:12

Jonathan: I think autonomy or self-rule is going to be a transitional period, and then the two sides will have to work out, by the way, with strong American involvement in the process.

13:19

Charlie Rose: I got to get to that point before I - do you, do you think most Israelis, I heard something the other day, whether it was Moshe or (inaudible), I don't want to put words in his mouth, the defense minister questioning, I think, and help me if I'm right, questioning whether the United States was an honest broker in this. I don't know if you heard that.

13:34

Jonathan: Yes, I heard that. I think the government of Israel is questioning. I think most Israelis -

13:39

Charlie Rose: The government of Israel was questioning whether the United States is an honest broker here.

13:45

Jonathan: Most Israelis know that there is not going to be a peace agreement unless the Americans are involved. There was no peace agreement in '48 without Ralph Bunche. There was no agreement in the 70s without Henry Kissinger. There was no Camp David without Jimmy Carter. There will not be an agreement now, I fear, I am pretty sure, unless the American government wisely and carefully brokers that agreement, and I think most Israelis understand that.

14:03

Charlie Rose: But the government fears that they're not being an honest broker and in your judgment they are?

14:11

Jonathan: I think that they are being the kind of broker that only - the best friend that Israel has and the strongest country in the world can be.

14:18

Nubar Hovsepian: Charlie, the problem is not whether the US is being an honest broker. What Secretary of Defense (inaudible) said is that we expect the US not to be an honest broker because they ought to be on our side. I believe the US should be an honest broker in order to move this conflict away from the area to living together.

14:37

Jonathan: Let me just add, Nubar, that I think that for Israel and for the Palestinians, being on the side of Israel is being an honest broker. Right now what Israel needs is peace more than anything else.

14:48

Nubar Hovsepian: And so do the Palestinians.

14:50

Jonathan: And so do the Palestinians. We need each other.

14:54

Nubar Hovsepian: So, therefore we need an honest broker to ensure that peace befalls upon both peoples.

14:58

Charlie Rose: On that, I thank you both for joining. Pleasure to have you. Tomorrow night, Phil Donahue will be here, and also Vladimir Posner, Liz Smith the gossip columnist joins us as well and I hope you will. Have a nice evening.